RESUMO
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a destructive effect on the health and well-being of the global population. A vital step in the battle against it is the successful screening of infected patients, together with one of the effective screening methods being radiology examination using chest radiography. Recognition of epidemic growth patterns across temporal and social factors can improve our capability to create epidemic transmission designs, including the critical job of predicting the estimated intensity of the outbreak morbidity or mortality impact at the end. The study's primary motivation is to be able to estimate with a certain level of accuracy the number of deaths due to COVID-19, managing to model the progression of the pandemic. Predicting the number of possible deaths from COVID-19 can provide governments and decision-makers with indicators for purchasing respirators and pandemic prevention policies. Thus, this work presents itself as an essential contribution to combating the pandemic. Kalman Filter is a widely used method for tracking and navigation and filtering and time series. Designing and tuning machine learning methods are a labor- and time-intensive task that requires extensive experience. The field of automated machine learning Auto Machine Learning relies on automating this task. Auto Machine Learning tools enable novice users to create useful machine learning units, while experts can use them to free up valuable time for other tasks. This paper presents an objective method of forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak using Kalman Filter and Auto Machine Learning. We use a COVID-19 dataset of Ceará, one of the 27 federative units in Brazil. Ceará has more than 235,222 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 8850 deaths due to the disease. The TPOT automobile model showed the best result with a 0.99 of R 2 score.
RESUMO
Primary Health Care (PHC) is the "front door" and keystone of Brazil's public health system, meaning that the evaluation of the quality of primary care services is of utmost importance. Using the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT), this study evaluated the performance of public PHC services in Fortaleza from the view of adult service users. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 233 adult service users from 19 primary care centers (PCCs) between June and December 2019, collecting data on the sociodemographic and epidemiological characteristics of users and structural features of PCCs. The association between user and PCC characteristics and primary care attribute scores was measured by multilevel logistic regression. Most participants were women, aged between 30 and 59 years, brown, house owners, had completed high school, did not own health insurance, and belonged to families with at least 4 members. The lowest and highest-scoring attributes were "first contact accessibility" and "first contact utilization" (2.8 and 8.1, respectively). The overall essential and general scores were 6.0 and 5.7, respectively. Having complete health teams, more community health workers, and a family and community medicine residency program had a positive effect on the general score (p<0.05). Overall, the public services analyzed in Fortaleza received a low performance rating from the adult service users.
A Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS) é porta de entrada e eixo estruturante do Sistema de Saúde brasileiro, o que impõe a necessidade de avaliação de sua qualidade. Este estudo objetivou avaliar os serviços públicos de Atenção Básica quanto aos atributos da APS por meio do PCATool na ótica de usuários em Fortaleza. Trata-se de um estudo transversal, de junho a dezembro de 2019, com 233 usuários adultos de 19 Unidades de APS (UAPS). Foram coletados dados sociodemográficos e epidemiológicos dos usuários e sobre a estrutura das UAPS. Utilizou-se modelo multinível para analisar características de usuários e UAPS em relação ao escore de APS medido via PCATool. Participantes foram, na maioria, mulheres, de 30 a 59 anos, pardos, com Ensino Médio completo, sem seguro privado, com moradia própria do tipo casa, de famílias até 4 pessoas. "Acessibilidade" obteve o menor escore, 2,8, e "Utilização" obteve o maior escore, 8,1. O Escore Essencial da APS foi 6,0, enquanto o Escore Geral foi 5,7. Houve influência positiva (p<0,05) no Escore Geral por: equipes completas, maior número de agentes comunitários e presença de residência de Medicina de Família e Comunidade. Concluiu-se que os serviços públicos de Fortaleza avaliados possuem baixo desempenho de APS na ótica dos usuários adultos.
